Gammanpila_2007_BMC.Geriatr_7_25

BACKGROUND: The study aims to quantify the population impact of prescribing cholinesterase inhibitors to slow the cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD), and to compare with the benefit of treating hypertension to prevent the onset of AD.
METHODS: Literature review to ascertain the prevalence of AD, benefits of interventions, analysis of local and national surveys to measure the current use of interventions in the relevant population and application of the relevant findings to calculate Population Impact Measures. The Number of Events Prevented in a Population (NEPP) by the intervention over a defined time period is calculated for a UK urban population in one Local Authority (population size 217,000).
RESULTS: Treatment of all eligible patients with mild to moderate AD with Cholinesterase Inhibitors would prevent cognitive deterioration (measured by ADAS - cog scale) in 123.6 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 82.3, 169.1), 16.4 (95% CI 2.1, 31.2) would show a mild improvement (4 points or more on the ADAS - cog scale) and 2.6 (95% CI 0.2, 5.8) would show an improvement of 7 points or more over a period of 6 months. This would require the treatment of 406 patients with Cholinesterase Inhibitors. Increasing from the current treatment rate of 46% of eligible patients to 'best practice' level would prevent cognitive deterioration in 66.8 (95% CI 44.0, 92.6), 8.99 (95% CI 1.2, 16.8) and 1.4 (95% CI 0.11, 3.2) would improve by 4 and 7 points respectively on the ADAS - cog scale over 6 months. This would require the treatment of an extra 187 patients with Cholinesterase Inhibitors beyond current practice, at an additional annual direct drug cost of pound187,000. Improving the treatment of hypertension from current practice by 20% could prevent 8.2 (95% CI 2.3, 16.8) incident cases of AD in the next year. This would require the treatment of an extra 2711 patients with antihypertensive drugs. CONCLUSION: Population Impact Measures are a new method to allow a demonstration of the magnitude of the benefit for the whole population following interventions. The use of drugs to slow cognitive decline, or to prevent AD by treating hypertension, can thus be assessed in a prioritisation exercise in competition with alternative use of resources.