Tacke_2007_Scand.J.Gastroenterol_42_374

OBJECTIVE: Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding from esophageal or gastric fundus varices is a common complication of portal hypertension in liver cirrhosis and carries a high mortality rate of 20-35%. Stratifying high-risk patients for variceal bleeding is mainly based on endoscopic scoring. The purpose of this study was to develop a simple clinical score to assess the bleeding risk. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 111 patients with chronic liver diseases were included during evaluation for potential liver transplantation and were followed for 6 years. Findings at study entry were analyzed for their value in predicting hemorrhages. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients (22%) developed upper GI hemorrhages from varices during the follow-up period. Common characteristics at study entry of patients with future bleedings included viral hepatitis or alcoholic etiology, advanced-stage cirrhosis, decreased liver function, impaired hemostasis and endoscopic presence of varices. These parameters were also independent predictors of bleedings. A four-item Bleeding Risk Score, including cholinesterase <2.25 kU/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >1.2, viral or alcoholic etiology and presence of varices, was used to identify patients at high (>2 points) or low (